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Mengapa Prancis mencoba bermain di tangan Rusia?

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Prancis mulai memasok senjata ke Armenia. Awalnya, ini melibatkan pengiriman 50 kendaraan lapis baja, tetapi di masa depan, pengiriman sistem rudal permukaan-ke-udara Mistral Prancis juga dimungkinkan. menulis James Wilson.

Informasi ini telah dipublikasikan oleh beberapa orang Israel dan outlet media Eropa dan kemudian dikonfirmasi oleh pernyataan Rachya Arzumanyan, mantan pejabat tinggi pemerintahan separatis di kantong Armenia Karabakh, yang terletak di wilayah pendudukan Azerbaijan. Arzumanyan, berbicara kepada Saluran Armenia 1inTV, stated that “significant changes would occur in the military sphere in Armenia in the next two months”. He also added, “I cannot openly talk about it yet… We need to forget about cooperation with Russia in the military sphere… We don’t have time to talk and wait.”

Earlier, several Ukrainian outlets and the state television channel of Moldova reported on the upcoming supplying of French weapons to Armenia, emphasising that “Western military equipment supplied to Yerevan could be used by Russians to counter the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive. This is apparent, considering the close military cooperation between Yerevan and Moscow.”

Commenting on the reports of Moldova’s state TV regarding the French arms supplies to Armenia, Ukrainian military expert Roman Svitan stated “If France carries out such deliveries, it is playing into the hands of Russia.”

Kyiv has feared all along that Western military hardware, delivered to Armenia, may be used by the Russians. This is why Ukrainian intelligence services have actively surveilled the developments within the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict zone since mid-2022. Their concerns primarily stem from the understanding that such equipment may be reverse-engineered to enhance Russian capabilities in countering the same weaponry supplied by the West to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia’s invasion.

Kemungkinan hasil ini sangat tinggi, mengingat kerja sama militer yang erat antara Yerevan dan Moskow. Lagipula, Armenia bahkan mengizinkan dua pangkalan militer Rusia didirikan di dalam wilayah Armenia.

Jelas, Rusia dengan penuh semangat mengikuti setiap perkembangan dalam kerja sama militer langsung antara Prancis dan Armenia. Kemitraan itu sendiri diumumkan saat kunjungan Menteri Pertahanan Armenia Suren Papikyan ke Paris pada September 2022. Berbagai sumber, termasuk outlet analitis AS tentang keamanan internasional, Global Security Review, menulis tentang pasokan senjata: “Retorika pro-Armenia tentang Presiden [Prancis] [Emmanuel] Macron dapat menghasilkan kesepakatan mengenai pertahanan udara.” Mei ini, outlet Rusia REX melaporkan bahwa bantuan militer yang direncanakan Prancis untuk memasok Armenia "pada tahap awal termasuk senjata mematikan."

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Setelah diskusi tentang bantuan militer Prancis ke Armenia, media Barat terkemuka seperti The New York Times menerbitkan berbagai artikel tentang peran yang dimainkan Armenia dalam membantu dan bersekongkol dengan Rusia untuk menghindari sanksi, termasuk ekspor rahasia chip dan sirkuit mikro untuk militernya, serta juga berfungsi sebagai hub transshipment untuk senjata Iran dikirim ke Moskow.

Senjata-senjata Iran itu, terutama drone, sudah sangat banyak digunakan oleh Rusia di Ukraina, tetapi juga drone yang sama digunakan selama bentrokan pada bulan April dan Mei antara angkatan bersenjata Azerbaijan dan Armenia. 

There is also a significant likelihood that French weaponry could potentially find its way into the possession of Iranian forces. Given Iran’s history of employing reverse engineering techniques, this strategy presents an opportunity for Iranian arms manufacturers to upgrade and enhance their own arsenal. Such advancements could then be channelled into the arms exported to various terrorist organisations, actively seeking to disrupt stability in the Middle East.

The timing of France’s weapon deliveries to Yerevan, coinciding with the upcoming presidential elections in Turkey is rather important. Over the past three years, Erdogan has consistently portrayed himself as a counterbalance to Macron, particularly concerning developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus. This rivalry between the two leaders was notably amplified during the aftermath of Azerbaijan’s victory, with the backing of Turkey and Israel, in the Second Karabakh War in 2020.

Besides that, weapon deliveries from France to Armenia put France on a collision course with Israel, for whom Azerbaijan is a close strategic partner. Israel is also one of the of the main suppliers of weapons to Baku’s defence forces.

Pakar Israel terkemuka Ron Ben Ishay memilikinya mengeluarkan peringatan about the heightened threat posed by the modernization and improvement of Iranian munitions. He asserts that the utilisation of Russian weaponry in Ukraine will inevitably contribute to enhancing Iranian capabilities, thereby intensifying the danger for all powers currently opposing Iran’s aggressive military activities. This development, notably, includes Israel.

Jika Erdogan menghadapi kekalahan elektoral di Turki, Israel berpotensi muncul sebagai satu-satunya sekutu strategis Baku, yang secara konsisten menghadapi ancaman dari Teheran. Pergeseran lanskap politik ini dapat memiliki implikasi yang signifikan, membentuk kembali dinamika aliansi regional dalam lanskap geopolitik yang sedang berlangsung.

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